Curtain Number One, Two, Or Three?
Flutter CEO Peter Jackson talks about the potential opportunities for prediction markets, and why they might be overhyped.
Prediction Markets Won't Eclipse Sportsbooks. Lottery courier bills. NY casino updates. DC Court grants CFTC dismissal in Kalshi case. And more.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: Flutter CEO peppered with prediction market questions.
ROUNDUP: IL and MO lottery courier bills; Ohio iGaming proposal floated; HG Vora files suit against Penn; PokerStars delays shared liquidity in PA.
NEWS: The latest updates on New York casinos.
NEWS: DC Court grants dismissal in CFTC-Kalshi election markets case.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Are there different levels of sportsbooks?
STRAY THOUGHTS: Waiting is good… Or is it?
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The Lede: Flutter CEO Explains the Long and Short of Prediction Markets
Flutter CEO Peter Jackson fielded several questions about prediction markets during the company’s earnings call yesterday, and while there wasn’t much there, there, Jackson did hint at two things Straight to the Point has been saying all along:
Prediction Markets/Exchanges (for sports) aren’t new.
Prediction markets (at least as currently constituted) aren’t going to supplant sportsbooks.
“I've said this to people before, but it's worth reminding you, we do operate the world's largest sports betting exchange,” Jackson said. “The Betfair exchange has, for many years, given us very good insights in terms of how this stuff can play out. And look, I think it tells us that you've got to be quite thoughtful about how exciting the exchange product can be when you have a fully fledged sports betting product available to you.”
Jackson highlighted the parlay mix in the US, and the difficulties such products would have in an exchange environment, saying, “So we're very thoughtful about it, particularly having seen so much success in terms of having the best product in the market. And I think that for existing states where sports betting is allowed, I'm not that confident that this will have a significant impact.”
As I recently noted, the sports betting market is separating into four distinct categories:
Traditional: Analytical, value-driven betting.
SGP: Casual, high-excitement wagering.
In-Game/Prediction: Real-time, speculative engagement.
Daily Fantasy Sports: Strategic, roster-based peer-to-peer competition.
Separately, Jackson noted the positive aspects that prediction markets bring to the table, including the capability to “prime the pump” in yet-to-legalize states. And danced around a question asking if Flutter would seek to register Betfair Exchange with the CFTC, but did say that Flutter has moved some people from the Betfair Exchange business to FanDuel “to help us evaluate the opportunity.”
Two other interesting quotes from Jackson:
“The political stuff is something that people talk about, and other gamified markets as well. So look, we're interested in the potential opportunity.”
“It's worth remembering that DFS is a really good precursor to the parlay product, whereas the prediction markets are quite limited.”
Roundup: IL and MO Courier Bills; Ohio iGaming Proposal Floated; HG Vora vs. Penn; PokerStars Delays PA Pooling
Illinois bill would regulate lottery couriers [Play Illinois]: With other states taking action against lottery couriers, legislation in Illinois would officially allow “a licensed lottery sales agent to enter into an agreement with a third-party entity to assist with processing the sale of lottery tickets on behalf of the licensed lottery sales agent.” The bill, SB 2035, was introduced by State Sen. Celina Villanueva in February. Illinois was one of the first online lottery states, and its query (along with New York) led to the Department of Justice Office of Legal Counsel opinion that allowed states to offer intrastate online gambling. As an online lottery state, it will be interesting to see if the measure gains traction. Couriers are already operating in the state with permission.
Lottery courier provision sneaks into Missouri budget proposal [KSDK Channel 5]: Missouri lawmakers are debating a budget provision allowing lottery couriers in the state that was quietly added to the budget by the Senate Appropriations Committee. The effort has created strange bedfellows as casinos and VLT supporters are on the same side of the issue, along with convenience store owners. Lawmakers face a Friday deadline to finalize the budget, with the online lottery issue complicating negotiations.
Ohio online gambling bill surfaces [WOSU Public Media]: Per local reporting, Ohio State Rep. Brian Stewart, the House Finance Committee chair, is drafting a bill to legalize online gambling, including online poker and casino games. Like the Missouri courier bill mentioned above, the bill comes as the Ohio Senate reviews the budget.
Penn-HG Vora fight escalates [Legal Sports Report]: HG Vora, a 4.8% stakeholder in Penn Entertainment, has filed a lawsuit against the company, alleging it violated Pennsylvania law and federal securities regulations by shrinking its board from nine to wight and reducing the number of available board seats from three to two ahead of the June 17, 2025, shareholder meeting. Recall that Penn nominated two of the three board members proposed by HG Vora — Johnny Hartnett and Carlos Ruisanchez. The activist investor has been critical of the company’s foray into online betting. The move, HG Vora claims, was a “self-serving” attempt to block its third director nominee, William Clifford, amid a proxy battle. Penn’s earnings call is set for today.
PokerStars will not be linking its PA online poker tables with other states… yet [Pokerfuse.com]: PokerStars has confirmed “it will not be connecting its PA online poker room with its existing shared liquidity network in the short term,” according to Pokerfuse.com. “In a statement sent to Pokerfuse on Thursday, PokerStars said that 'current global operational priorities' are the reason behind the delay, but hinted it would connect PokerStars PA with its existing MI-NJ network at a later date.”
SPONSOR’S MESSAGE - Episode 73: Is Bet365 Prepping To Go Public?
Host Brad Allen is joined by Alun Bowden and Matthew Trenhaile to discuss recent reports that bet365 is prepping for some kind of sale, including:
Why the timing could be right
Whether the US stock market would welcome the company
How bet365 could change after a transaction
News: NY Casinos – Tensions Rise as Deadlines Loom
Since my last New York casino entry, several developments highlight growing community pushback, legislative maneuvering, and ongoing environmental review delays.
With the withdrawals of Saks and Las Vegas Sands, the field has been winnowed to nine, but with only three licenses up for grabs (and two clear frontrunners in Empire City and Resorts World), the path forward will be highly contentious.
Community Opposition Intensifies Against Wynn
Manhattan residents are rallying against the $12 billion Hudson Yards casino proposal from Related Companies and Wynn Resorts. According to Pix11, local residents have launched a petition to block the project, citing concerns over increased traffic, crime, and disruptions from rezoning and renovation plans that include residential towers and a school.
Despite the City Planning Commission’s recent approval of the project’s zoning changes, STTP still classifies this as a long-shot bid.
Progress in Queens for Hard Rock
In Queens, the proposed $8 billion Metropolitan Park casino project, backed by Mets owner Steve Cohen and Hard Rock, overcame a key legislative hurdle, when the New York Senate’s Finance Committee advanced a bill to rezone 50 acres of parkland near Citi Field, essential for the project’s casino, hotel, and entertainment complex.
However, the bill still has to pass, and State Sen. Jessica Ramos remains opposed to parkland alienation without broader community benefits. This development bolsters Metropolitan Park’s position, which is why I consider it a frontrunner, but it’s far from a done deal.
Environmental Review Woes Persist
Several proposals face potential disqualification due to the New York State Gaming Commission’s sluggish environmental reviews, which continue to cause headaches for:
SL Green and Caesars’ Times Square bid (STTP’s top Manhattan candidate)
Silverstein Properties and Greenwood Gaming’s Avenir
Soloviev Group’s East River mixed-use complex
The projects are facing tight deadlines, and the Gaming Commission’s delay in initiating State Environmental Quality Review Act (SEQRA) processes has bidders worried about missing the September 30, 2025, land-use resolution deadline, with applications due June 27, 2025.
Bally’s Chicago Woes Cast Shadow on New York Bid
Bally’s, a contender for one of New York’s three downstate casino licenses with a proposed $2.5 billion Ferry Point project, is dealing with mounting criticism over its Chicago casino project that could spill over and jeopardize its Big Apple ambitions.
The company’s $1.7 billion Chicago casino project has seen revenue fall short of expectations and has been plagued by setbacks, including a recent construction halt ordered by the Illinois Gaming Board in May 2025 due to the use of an unapproved waste hauler with alleged mob ties.
The project is also taking a toll on the company’s credit ratings, which were downgraded by Fitch Ratings in March 2025, citing high debt and “execution risks” in Chicago.
And if it didn’t have enough on its plate, Bally’s recent $180 million investment in Australia’s The Star Entertainment has raised concerns about its ability to fund multiple large-scale projects, including New York.
Upshot
As STTP has been warning, the downstate casino licensing process is going to get messier, and the process, which will almost certainly lead to lawsuits, will likely delay or derail broader gaming expansions, like online casinos.
News: DC Circuit Grants CFTC Dismissal in Election Market Case
It’s official, the DC Circuit granted the CFTC's motion to dismiss its appeal in its lawsuit over Kalshi’s election contracts.
Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley wasted no time in criticizing the CFTC’s capitulation, writing the following after the CFTC moved to dismiss its appeal against Kalshi Inc., effectively allowing betting on U.S. elections to continue:
“Election gambling reduces our democratic process to a horse race for the wealthy and powerful to bet on. The CFTC’s disastrous decision puts billionaire and corporate profits ahead of the core values of our democratic process—that’s a bad bet for democracy.
“I’ll never stop fighting to protect the integrity of our votes, and as multi-million-dollar smear campaigns threaten to further destroy our elections, I’ll keep fighting to pass my Ban Gambling on Elections Act.”
Apparently, Kalshi’s visit with Merkley in December 2023 didn’t have the intended impact (from STTP’s December 14, 2023 entry):
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Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
And in (almost) completely unrelated news, Sporttrade’s Alex Kane highlighted the difference between “market-based” and casino-based” sportsbooks — STTP has put forth the idea that there are four categories of sportsbooks.
Stray Thoughts
Two proverbs to consider this fine Thursday morning.
"Good things come to those who wait."
"Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle."