And Then There Were Two
After a string of resignations, In June, the CFTC will be down to two commissioners, potentially stalling actions and likely benefiting Kalshi.
The Bulletin Board
THE LEDE: The CFTC will soon be down to two commissioners.
PREDICTION MARKET ROUNDUP: Tribes get an invite; Parlays coming soon; Kalshi’s reliance on sports markets.
ROUNDUP: Sweeps bills in LA and OH; Ohio has 2 iCasino bills; MD raises OSB tax rate; Alberta is official; ROGA + UNLV.
NEWS: Horse racing’s tentpole events are more popular than ever.
BEYOND the HEADLINE: Online is a huge plus for poker and horse racing.
AROUND the WATERCOOLER: Louisiana regulators name names.
STRAY THOUGHTS: It’s your fault; even when it probably isn’t.
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The Lede: Dispatches From the CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is in a state of flux.
Rostin Behnam announced his resignation from his role as Chairman of the CFTC in February 2025. President Donald Trump appointed Brian Quintenz to fill Behnam’s role, and Commissioner Caroline Pham was named acting Chair.
When will Quintenz be confirmed? It looks like that won’t happen until late Summer, and when he takes over, he may be one of two commissioners, as the resignations are coming fast and furious.
Acting CFTC Chairman Caroline Pham announced her departure upon the confirmation of Brian Quintenz: “I will be returning to the private sector once Brian Quintenz is confirmed as Chairman.”
Pham’s announcement comes on the heels of two other commissioners stepping down:
Christy Goldsmith Romero is leaving the CFTC on May 31.
Summer Mersinger's last day is May 30, as she has accepted a position as the CEO of the Blockchain Association.
As we head into June, the CFTC is down to two commissioners, Pham and Kristin Johnson, with Quintenz replacing Pham when he is confirmed.
Bottom line: The likelihood of anything happening at the CFTC in the foreseeable future is near zero, which will likely work in Kalshi’s favor.
Prediction Market Roundup
Tribes invited to participate in CFTC conference call [InGame]: “According to multiple sources, a senior representative for the CFTC sent a letter earlier this month to certain tribal groups inviting them to participate in a conference call on May 29 at 1 p.m. with Acting Chairman Caroline Pham.”
Parlays at prediction market sites are “a matter of time” [Comped.com]: “Operators are pointing to the scant sports offerings – specifically, the lack of parlays – as a major differentiator between the two models… But single-event sports event contracts are just the tip of the iceberg of what financial platforms could eventually offer, according to industry analysts. There is a path for parlays to be added to the mix. “It [is not] entirely accurate in my view for CEOs to be dismissive of that,” Alfonso Straffon, a former sports trader turned bond trader, told Comped.”
Kalshi is more reliant on sports than sportsbooks [InGame]: After analyzing Kalshi’s trading data between February 25 and May 17, InGame found, “More than three-quarters of Kalshi’s trading volume now comes from sports.” Per InGame, “in the first quarter, DraftKings made about $881 million in sports betting revenue, representing about 62% of its overall revenue for the period. Most of the remainder came from online casino activity, available so far in only seven U.S. jurisdictions. FanDuel’s $1.13 billion in sports betting revenue means sports made up a little under 70% of its first-quarter business, with online casino again making up the bulk of the remainder.” I’ve reproduced the image below with permission, but I highly recommend visiting InGame to see many other charts and data points.
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Roundup: Sweeps Bills; Ohio Online Casinos; MD Raises OSB Tax Rate; Alberta iGaming Official; ROGA + UNLV
Louisiana bill prohibiting sweepstakes continues to progress [Sweepsy]: The Louisiana House Committee on Administration of Criminal Justice passed SB 181, a sweepstakes prohibition bill that breezed through the Senate last month in a 39-0 vote. As Light & Wonder’s (a newsletter sponsor) Howard Glaser said on LinkedIn, “At the hearing, the bill was supported by the Casino Association, the Video Game Association, and the Family Forum (and many others). Notably, these are three groups that don’t agree on anything related to gaming. But they all united to stop unregulated, unlicensed, untaxed online casinos.”
Ohio’s second online casino legalization bill has a sweepstakes ban [Casino Reports]: Ohio has a second piece of legislation, HB 298, sponsored by House Finance Committee Chair Brian Stewart, aiming to legalize online casinos. The most significant difference is that HB 298 includes a prohibition on sweepstakes casinos. The House bill also diverges from Sen. Nathan Manning’s bill, SB 197, in tax rates (28% compared to Manning’s 36% or 40%) and licensing renewal fees (both have a $50 million licensing fee, but HB 298 has a $10 million renewal fee compared to $5 million in SB 197). Unlike the Senate bill, the House bill prohibits credit cards and doesn’t include online lottery or parimutuel wagering. STTP Thoughts: Considering the differences, this doesn’t feel like a coordinated effort.
Maryland Gov. signs sports betting tax increase [Covers.com]: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore officially signed HB 352, the Budget Reconciliation and Financing Act of 2025, into law. HB 352 increases the tax rate on mobile sports betting operators from 15% to 20%. As I noted in my deep dive on sports betting tax increases earlier this week, only two other states have increased their sports betting tax rate after launch (Maryland is the third), but plenty of efforts are afoot.
Alberta online gambling bill is officially official [Geoff Zochodne on X]: As Geoff Zochodne posted on X, “Back at it today and just wanted to duly note that the iGaming Alberta Act received Royal Assent last week, an important and yet totally ceremonial and automatic step for the legislation.”
ROGA and UNLV team up for AI RG Initiative [CDC Gaming Reports]: “The University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ International Gaming Institute on Wednesday announced the Responsible Online Gaming Association as a founding member of its AI Research Hub… AiR Hub will serve as a central focal point for research, focusing on producing research projects and insights across gaming’s AI use cases, with a goal of informing best practices for responsible gaming in the age of AI.”
Views: Horse Racing Is All About Tentpole Events
Horse racing is a dying sport. That’s the overall narrative.
As the Courier-Journal reported in April:
“Handles for U.S. races have fallen five of the last six years, including a 3.7% drop in 2023 and a 3.35% drop in 2024, according to Equibase. The only exception is 2021, as horse racing continued under fewer restrictions than other sports during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
“Wagering on horses peaked in 2003. Those numbers are down 57% when adjusted for inflation, Gramm said, and down 20% since the legalization of sports betting.”
“Attendance is down industrywide (30% since 2000), as is the number of races conducted annually. More than 30,850 races occurred in 2024, compared with 52,000 in 1967.”
However, that’s not the case for Triple Crown races.
The Kentucky Derby saw massive betting numbers, according to the Paulick Report (the best horse racing site out there):
“Wagering from all sources on the Kentucky Derby Day program set a new record of $349.0 million, beating last year’s record of $320.5 million. All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $234.4 million, beating last year’s record of $210.7 million. All-sources handle for Derby Week rose to a new record of $473.9 million, beating last year’s record of $446.6 million.”
“TwinSpires… handled a new record of $108.0 million in wagering on Churchill Downs races for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to last year’s record of $92.1 million... TwinSpires’ handle from the Kentucky Derby race was a new record of $73.0 million, beating last year’s record of $60.9 million.”
And per the Paulick Report, the Preakness was also a near-record-setter:
“The 150th Preakness Stakes – the last to be run in front of the historic Pimlico Race Course grandstand in Baltimore, Md. – helped generate near-record wagering of $110,043,794 on the 14-race card on Saturday, May 17. The pari-mutuel handle on the day was the second highest in the race's history and up 11.3 percent from the $98,858,918 bet on last year's Preakness Stakes program.”
STTP Thoughts: Tracks are closing or reducing their race days, attendance is down, and there is still a contentious debate over animal safety, but tentpole events like the Kentucky Derby continue to draw large crowds and generate significant wagering, indicative of sustained interest in high-profile races.
There’s also interest in online wagering with Caesars integrating ADW horse racing in its sports betting app (STTP coverage) and increasing interest in statehouses to allow fixed-odds wagering on horse races, which is more intuitive to casual bettors.
Beyond the Headline: Horse Racing Needs Online
Poker and horse racing can be daunting for beginners.
Poker’s complex rules, both written and unwritten, and the impatience of experienced players when newcomers slow the game or err, create a steep learning curve. The high cost of entry—often $100 minimum at poker tables—further deters new players.
The same is true for horse racing. It takes time to understand how and what to bet. Bettors need to understand how parimutuel wagering works, and betting a couple of dollars to win $10 isn’t exactly an appealing prospect when the frequency of races is roughly every 30 minutes.
Online betting offers a solution. It lets beginners learn at their own pace, free from judgmental stares, and with much lower stakes, making both poker and horse racing more accessible and less daunting.
The poker boom was spurred on by a series of events, but without the accessibility of online poker (and the ability to learn the game for pennies), it would have been an uptick, not a boom. Online poker allowed newcomers to experiment and build confidence without the financial and social pressures of live play.
SPONSOR’S MESSAGE - Episode 73: Is Bet365 Prepping To Go Public?
Host Brad Allen is joined by Alun Bowden and Matthew Trenhaile to discuss recent reports that bet365 is prepping for some kind of sale, including:
Why the timing could be right
Whether the US stock market would welcome the company
How bet365 could change after a transaction
Around the Watercooler
Social media conversations, rumors, and gossip.
It looks like regulators will start naming names:
Stray Thoughts
If I’m not getting through to a martial arts student, it’s my fault. I can keep explaining it the same way, which isn’t going to get through, or I can try to explain it differently.
If a student isn’t grasping a technique in martial arts, the instructor must take responsibility. That’s my philosophy: what Jocko Willink would call extreme accountability. If you’re not getting it, that’s on me.
Repeating the same explanation over and over doesn’t work. Blaming the student is a cop-out. As the instructor, I need to adapt. I need to use new analogies or further break down movements.
There is a lesson in there for the industry. Own that the messaging isn’t landing. When RG messaging or pro-legalization arguments fail to resonate, the fault often lies in delivery, not the audience.
The challenge is assessing why the message isn’t landing. Are audiences overwhelmed by jargon, like a martial arts student lost in a move’s complexity? Are they distrustful of the messenger?
Ultimately, effective RG messaging and legalization advocacy, like martial arts instruction, demands flexibility. By meeting audiences where they are—emotionally, culturally, or intellectually—advocates can build trust and understanding, ensuring their arguments actually resonate.